Frame 1:
Essex took 13 hits, Wasp took 22 hits
We shot down 6 Bettys and all the Kates and Vals
We failed to hit any of the carriers

Analyses:  Flying the TBFs low to do torpedo without escorts runs was a bad idea.  There was no room to dive to escape and without escorts the TBFs were sitting ducks.  On defense, we had to spread ourselves really thin to be able to pick up the betties and they ended up coming in even higher then we expected.

Status after the frame:
ESSEX: 13 hits (healed to 7 in frame 2)
WASP: 22 hits (healed to 16 in frame 2)
HANCOCK: 0 hits
INTREPID: 0 hits
IJN#1: 0 hits
IJN#2: 0 hits
IJN#3: 0 hits
IJN#4: 0 hits

Frame 2:
Intrepid took 24 hits and was destroyed, Wasp took 10 and was also destroyed.
The TBFs got within sight of 7Carrier but were shot down.
Only 2 US torpedoes hit their target and this was not confirmed so no hits were given

Analyses:  Our plan was a good one, but unfortunately, once again the lack of proper escort made the TBFs easy targets for the extremely well trained and disciplined IJN.  Despite committing most of our fighters to defense, we were still spread too thin to stop the variety of Japanese bombers coming at alts from wave top to 38K.

Status after the frame:
ESSEX: 7 hits (healed to 1 in frame 3)
WASP: destroyed
HANCOCK: 0 hits
INTREPID: destroyed
IJN#1: 0 hits
IJN#2: 0 hits
IJN#3: 0 hits
IJN#4: 0 hits
 

Frame 3:
Hancock took 24 hits and was destroyed, no other carriers were hit.
The TBFs finally got to target and destroyed 6Carrier also damaging 7Carrier.

Analyses:  The weather definitely helped our TBFs, but most importantly, we committed many fighters to escort duty, and even just their presence helped the TBFs stay alive longer (be it because of actual combat results or even just IJN SA overload).  We only had 16 fighters defending all 4 carriers and we paid for it dearly with the death of Hancock.  It could have been worse, too, the IJN had erroneously sent attackers to 7Kubo thinking that it was live.  The betties once again came in high, and because of the lower visibility, we had an even harder time defending all that volume of air.

Status after the frame:
ESSEX: 1 hit (healed to 0 in frame 4)
WASP: destroyed
HANCOCK: destroyed
INTREPID: destroyed
IJN#1: destroyed
IJN#2: 12 hits (healed to 6 in frame 5)
IJN#3: 0 hits
IJN#4: 0 hits

Frame 4:
Wasp took 24 hits and was sunk (S).  Hancock took 11 hits.  Intrepid took 15 hits.  Essex took 1 hit.
Our TBFs dropped on 7Car sinking it, and on 4Car, causing 20 points of damage.

Analyses: Once again the bad weather really helped out TBFs in getting to target.  Our defenders back home did a fantastic job at keeping 3 of the 4 carriers from sinking.  The Wasp was lost because it wasn't being defended at all.  There were a couple of snafu's during this frame, but both sides of the scenario handled it like professionals.

Status after the frame:
ESSEX: 1 hit (healed to 0 in frame 5)
WASP: SUNK
HANCOCK: destroyed + 11 hits (does not heal)
INTREPID: destroyed + 15 hits (does not heal)
IJN#1: destroyed
IJN#2: destroyed
IJN#3: 20 hits (healed to 14 in frame 5)
IJN#4: 0 hits

Frame 5:
Hancock took 13+ hits and was sunk (S).  Intrepid took 9+ hits and was sunk (S).
Our TBFs dropped on 3Car sinking it, and on 1Car, sinking it as well.

Analyses: due to victory conditions confusion, the IJN didn't bother to defend their 2 remaining mobile carriers which were sunk easily.  In the opinion of this US Officer, the IJN went into frame 5 like a bull, never even considering the tactical mistakes they made.  Their previous victories clouded their vision.  Not only did the IJN fail to defend their mobile carriers, they also failed to attack the most important US carrier, the mobile ESSEX.  The US wasn't even defending ESSEX but because our TBF attack came so early, we were able to get our fighters back to ESSEX to defend it from the strays coming from 2Kubo and 5Kubo (Hancock and Intrepid respectively).

Status after the frame:
ESSEX: no hits
WASP: SUNK
HANCOCK: SUNK
INTERPID: SUNK
IJN#1: Destroyed
IJN#2: Destroyed
IJN#3: Destroyed
IJN#4: Destroyed

Final Results:
Technically, the scenario resulted in a no-win condition, but because of errors in these conditions, a draw was also not achieved.  Although neither strategic nor tactical victory was achieved, a marginal victory was declared for the IJN based on the fact that they repelled the invasion of the Phillipines.  However, their fleet is now immobilized, and the carrier ESSEX has been able to leave the area undamaged.  It will be some time before the four IJN carriers can leave the Leyte Gulf region, during which time, level bombing attacks on the islands and the ships will be possible.

This is, what some call, a Phyrric victory, a victory the IJN achieved at the price of the war.
~Boa